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July 15, 2008 10:51 AM

On: Trustworthiness and Chinese Meteorologists

A story about snow days that will eventually segue into Olympic related news:

When I was in 10th grade, sometime around February, I remember waking up one Friday morning to news reports of "The Storm of the Century."  Meteorologists in my hometown of Washington, D.C., were predicting rolling whiteouts around town, possibly two feet or more.  All of them -- Topper Shutt on Channel 9, Doug Hill on Channel 7 and most especially Bob Ryan on Channel 4 -- were becoming more excited with each new regional satellite image.  Snow should be falling by 9 p.m. tonight, they said.  Definitely a foot or more by Saturday morning.

This was obviously huge news.  A few feet of snow is a big deal if you're 6 or 16.  It meant snowball fights and sledding at the hill behind the school and definitely a few cups of hot chocolate.  The fact that the storm wouldn't cancel any school was a bit of a downer, but not enough to override the imminence of fresh snow.

I should note: D.C. does not have a history of handling snow very well.  Congress closes at the mere threat of powder; in 8th grade, my school system once closed early due to a mild rain that Topper, Doug and Bob said could turn into a hailstorm at any moment (it didn't; we ended up with a light rain and a free afternoon instead).  When the Topper-Doug-Bob monster gets wound up about some periwinkle blob on their Doppler, the most amazing thing happens: all at once, a semi-coordinated mob of minivans rush to local supermarkets, buying triple-ply Charmin and Evian and all the other things that will no longer exist in Washington after the giant blob dumps snow on our fair city, living it uninhabitable to all those without a Starbucks within immediate stomping distance.  The meteorologists, meanwhile, don't help the situation, because they're always trying to top one another with their predictions.  The Storm of February begets The Storm of the Winter begets The Storm of the Year begets The Storm of the Century.  These guys pile on the superlatives at an unending exponential rate until, ideally, a new storm approaches for them to hype.

Anyway, once the minivans had emptied all remaining supplies of Swiss Miss from local shelves, there was only one thing left to do: wait in front of our regular definition televisions for that periwinkle blob to turn an ominous gray, sweeping itself over the Beltway and leaving us without Frappuccinos for at least 96 hours (unlike Denver, the city of Washington has never and will never be prepared for a snowstorm, so the plows usually take 48 hours to clear each three-to-six inches of snow that falls).  This blob, as I mentioned earlier, was supposed to arrive around 9.

But 9 p.m. came, and snow wasn't falling.  We Washingtonians dutifully turned on our TVs; in the usual fashion, all programs were interrupted for 'round-the-clock Doppler-watching.  Topper, Doug and Bob weren't sure why it wasn't snowing yet, but it will be soon, they said.  Be afraid; be prepared.

I went to bed, and I woke up to find the front steps clear.  My mom was already tuned in on the couch, clutching a cup of Swiss Miss.  I grabbed my first cup of the day.  Topper and Doug were backing off their initial predictions -- maybe less than a foot, they were saying -- but Bob was still in full panic mode.  The Storm of the Century is still coming, he assured.  Be afraid; be prepared.  Snow should be falling by 11 a.m.

But 11 a.m. came, and there was no snow.  Then noon.  Then 3 p.m.  By the time the 5 p.m. newscasts came on, I was about fifteen cups of Swiss Miss in.  Meanwhile, Bob was practically delusional, shouting at anyone who'd still listen that snow was coming immediately, and that you had to be a crazy person to go outside with a periwinkle blob like this approaching.  About this time, Channel 4 was probably trying to decide whether or not it was legally reprehensible to sedate Bob on air with a tranquilizer gun.

On Sunday, we resumed our lives.  Some snow did fall in areas of Washington, Topper-Doug-Bob assured us that morning.  They had pictures to prove it, too.  Out near Damascus, Md., the horror of a light dusting of snow covered the driveways.  We were not impressed.

The meteorologists hadn't just imagined the snow on their Dopplers, though, because it did fall on the East Coast that weekend.  Boston got nearly two feet.  Philly was dumped upon.  Kids in Richmond, Va., Charlotte and even Atlanta enjoyed a few inches.  But my sled didn't leave the garage.

Yet, Topper-Doug-Bob are still pointing at the approaching periwinkle on green screens today.  Their failed Storm of the Century prediction didn't destroy their credibility; really, there's almost nothing I can think of that could do that.  Because all they're doing is looking at some numbers and some blobs on a radar screen and hoping that whenever they say that things will fall from the sky, they do.  So I typically trust the morning forecast, and maybe even the overnight numbers.  But I still find it hard to take them at their word when they start talking about anything that constitutes "the extended forecast."  The Storm of the Century That Never Was destroyed whatever trust previously existed between me and the meteorologists.

So here's where I finally bring it back to Beijing.  The Chinese are worried about rain during the Opening Ceremonies, so they've asked their top meteorologists to figure out whether or not it will rain on Aug. 8 (and whether or not they need to fire off a few of those rain rockets in advance).  Their top meteorologists, with uncommon wisdom, have responded with the most ambiguous possible forecast:

City weather statistics from 1951 to 2007 show there is a 47 percent chance of drizzle on August 8.

But the possibility of heavy rain was far from likely, Qiao said, adding the analysis was by no means an official weather forecast.

The statistical analysis also indicates a high possibility for warm and moist weather in mid August, with about one rainfall every three days, he said.

Extreme high temperatures are not likely, the analysis said, although Chen Zhenlin still cited heat waves along with thunderstrokes, fog, strong wind, and hailstones as the extreme weather conditions which might hit Beijing during the Olympics.

The good news, as I can see it: sand storms are probably out of the picture for Aug. 8.  You still might want to stock up on Swiss Miss anyway.

[photo at top right courtesy this NASA magazine.]

Posted by Dan Oshinsky at 10:51 AM | Comments (17)

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