April 22, 2008 12:01 AM

Oh, feeling that draft . . .

The regulars have kept things rolling through the draft season, so we again give a nod their way once again as we open with . . .

William Christensen on . . .

Q: Just wondering if now that things are getting closer to draft day what new rumblings might be coming from Broncoland? Any trades, new players of interest, etc.?

A: They have spent much of this week in meetings with their football staff so they are still hashing out their own draft board, ranking their players, taking the last look at any video they think they need to break some ties as they place the players.

They'll continue setting their draft board right up until Friday afternoon or so. They will also discus how they think the first round will play out and try to get a handle on the players they believe they will have a chance at with the No. 12 pick.

Most teams, the Broncos included, will make some preliminary calls to see who's amenable to a trade once the clock starts ticking Saturday. The league has trimmed five minutes off each pick in the first round -- it's now 10 minutes instead of 15 -- so people are going to have to move a little faster than they have in the past.

Some in the league continue to believe the Broncos will make a move on Jets defensive tackle Dwayne Robertson, despite the fact Robertson has already failed the team's physical because of his knees.

So, to actually surrender a draft pick for a player who has already failed a physical and is likely to be released by the Jets in the coming weeks regardless of what happens -- he's due a $3 million bonus in June, and there is little chance the Jets pay that -- wouldn't seem all that prudent for a team like the Broncos, who have said they are committed to getting younger, healthier and using the draft to build from within.

The Broncos will try to move down, as most teams do sitting in the middle of the round. They'd like to get an extra pick -- they don't have a third-rounder at the moment -- and pay a little less for their first-round pick than the No. 12 pick will require them to do.

Trouble is so many teams would like to move down at the moment that the price to make the move is currently too high to make it worthwhile because there are far more teams looking to move down than up, so the teams wanting to move up are currently calling the shots and asking for the moon.

Things could change on draft day, especially if a top 10 player like running back Darren McFadden and USC linebacker Keith Rivers start to fall. That would cause people to want to come up. Then the market would pick up.

Should they stay at 12, and that is the most likely scenario, Boise State tackle Ryan Clady will get a long look from the team, but he has to make it past Baltimore at No. 8 and the Bengals at No. 9. The Ravens, in that eighth spot, need a quarterback and a left tackle.

Ravens general manger Ozzie Newsome has said Steve McNair's retirement won't affect their draft strategy, but I don't know anyone who believes him. McNair's retirement has to affect their draft board.

Unless, of course, they simply planned to take a quarterback anyway even if McNair had tried to play one more year.

Also, with the draft being far deeper at tackle than quarterback this year, the Ravens could be willing to wait on a tackle until the second round and simply grab a quarterback when they have the best chance to get the guy they want.

And if the Falcons don't pick a quarterback at No. 3, the Ravens are expected to be able to choose from them all.

That would then put the Bengals in the Broncos' way at the next spot. Cincinnati is expected to draft a tackle and likes Clady better than Chris Williams or Jeff Otah.

So, Williams, who fits the Broncos system would be available at the 12 spot, but that might be a few slots too high for him. The Broncos will almost certainly have higher-rated players on their board at that point.

There is a scenario where the Broncos would also have a shot at Leodis McKelvin, who is the best combo returner on the board. That is likely the Broncos' biggest need at this point, given their struggles with field position in recent seasons and the depth of the tackle board overall.

McKelvin would have to clear New Orleans in the 10th spot -- the Saints would be looking linebacker there as well, especially if Rivers makes it past New England in the No. 7 spot.

Allen Harrison took a look at the top 100 and . . .

Q: Although running back seems to be the one position Mike Shanahan can deliver on consistently, I notice Rashard Mendenhall slipping down several of the mock drafts. Do you know how he's rated on the Broncos board? Do you have any idea where Shanahan is leaning for the first-round pick?

A: Yes, the folks at KOA have invited me on Saturday at various times between 1 and 6 p.m. just to chip in while Dave Logan and David Diaz-Infante take folks through the afternoon. I'll also be blogging at RockyMountainNews.com/broncos.

On the top 100 -- one of my favorite projects each year -- Smith was not an oversight, he just didn't make the cut at cornerback/safety for me to get on the list.

Smith is a productive player with 36 starts in just three years at Oklahoma, and he plays far better than he tests. The issue when you're looking at his draft status is where teams will now put him.

Because the draft is always about what the player will do now, not what he did before. What he did is a gauge, but what he is expected to do in the NFL is what places him on a draft board.

And few teams are going to pick a player, no matter how productive he was in college, who ran in the 4.6s at cornerback. And Smith ran 4.65 at his pro day earlier his month, his first testing since fracturing his right big toe in the Big 12 championship game.

So that makes him a candidate to be a safety, and a safety is a position where a player has to be very compelling to come off the board anywhere in the first three rounds.

Smith had 19 of his starts at safety at Oklahoma. And some consider that borderline speed even for a safety. His 39 1/2 vertical does show explosiveness, and he is a smart player who has shown himself to be a big hitter at times.

But for most scouts I know, play in the secondary is dictated by speed first, height second, the rest of the package following that. So the 4.3, 4.4 guys will move up the board on draft day no matter where they played and quality football players like Smith often have to wait to hear their names.

Some cover-2 teams will be interested in him because of his instincts and decision-making, though.

He could get snagged in those early rounds if a defensive coordinator or secondary coach really goes to bat for him on draft day, but he will need a big-time advocate to have that happen.

As far as the running back, I just rank them as I see them. Mendendall is a potential every-down back who runs with patience, has good vision and the ability to avoid the big shot.

Put all that in a player with 4.4 speed at 225 pounds who can also make big plays as a receiver, that's a top 10 player to me. I looked at 10 or so of his games and was really impressed with the way he plays.

He also blocks well enough on third down, in my mind, to play on third down. A high-character player by most accounts as well.

And Stewart is simply the most underrated player on this draft board. For whatever reason, be it recent toe surgery or the fact so many people have been talking about what the Dolphins would do at No. 1 before they signed Jake Long, or where the quarterbacks would go, Stewart has received almost no attention.

The reports I've gotten are that his foot will heal -- he had surgery to repair a turf toe condition -- and he should be ready in some fashion by the start of the season. This is the fastest big back I've seen in some time. At 235 pounds, he still ran 4.48 on the electronic clock at the combine on a foot that needed repair.

He's a good enough runner in traffic to have been a quality kickoff return man as well, and he runs with power. He does take some punishment and could run with a little better lean at times, but he's been so big and so strong -- he set records in the Oregon weight room -- he's been able to get away with it to this point.

I think he can adjust and will usually dish out more than he takes anyway. He finishes runs. The thing I like the most is he is strong enough to break tackles inside and then fast enough to turn an off-tackle play into a 40-yard touchdown.

That was my thinking. Now, that's not to say scouts I've known for a very long time don't agree with you in that I've pushed them up too high, but they know I'm a run-first guy on offense and will always do that anyway.

Both Mendenhall and Stewart are among the top four backs on the Broncos' board. Mendenhall even played in a zone scheme at Illinois so that is very attractive to teams like the Broncos and Texans.

As far as Shanahan's thinking, he is a risk taker at times on draft day. He is known to reach if he really likes a player so that is something to keep an eye on.

If they trade down, that means the guy they wanted is gone and if they move up, like they did in '06 to get Jay Cutler, they see a chance to get their guy before somebody else does.

This year their biggest needs -- offensive tackle and a returner -- will allow them to sit at 12 and get somebody they like. They also need a defensive tackle, but the board is thin there and honestly if you can't get Glenn Dorsey or Sedrick Ellis, you're likely looking at a rotation player anyway.

Kentwan Balmer is another defensive tackle people like a lot, but folks should always be a little hesitant that early on the board, or at least take a breath before making the pick, on a player who had just one big year in college in the four he played.

Some guys are late bloomers, sometimes the light does go on, but Balmer went from 17 tackles in '05 to 16 tackles in '06 to 59 tackles in '07.

Some 3-4 teams really like him as a potential end in that look, and he does really come off the ball with some explosiveness when you watched him this past season. I think the Steelers will give him a long look at the bottom of the round.

And Frank Parsons wondered . . .

Q: I think getting a top-flight running back like Mendenhall would help the Broncos' defense and offense right away. Wouldn't the Broncos have to take time to train a tackle they select in the first round? When I saw Rashard Mendenhall, and Boston College offensive tackle Gosder Cherilus, who is expected to go late in the first or early in the second, visited with Broncos coaches and officials, I thought this seems to be the best move, to give them help now and later. Do you think the Broncos are showing their hand, knowing they'll get a player they want at pick No. 12 either way? I think they addressed everything but the offensive line and playmakers in the backfield. What do you think about getting a running back, then a tackle for Day 1 in this year's draft?

A: We have covered the running back question, certainly they'd have a chance at one if they want one. But it has to be an every-down back. The Broncos aren't interested in another situational back; they think they already have two in Selvin Young and Andre Hall.

As far as tackle, that's doing their due diligence. It is the deepest group in decades at the position so a player like Cherilus, who would be a slam-dunk first-rounder most years, could conceivably slip into the early second -- though Long has already gone to Miami and Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago, Denver and San Diego will all be looking at tackles hard in the opening round and Kansas City may as well.

So Cherilus could end up in San Diego late in the first -- they have 20 of 22 starters back from a playoff team so can pick for developmental reasons. And, again, there will not be a tackle draft like this one for a while so teams that think they may need one down the road may just grab one now.

Also, I offer the caveat that it is certainly easy to over-think all this, but the Broncos have rarely picked a player in the opening round in Shanahan's tenure they actually had in for a visit to their Dove Valley complex. They are the only team I know of in all the time I've been around the league that actually drafted a quarterback in the opening round without actually speaking to the player -- Cutler -- before the draft.

Most teams hammer the quarterback candidates for days before the draft, peppering them with questions from everyone in the organization -- from the owner to the grounds keepers to the security guards -- because they feel like they have to be sure.

So the Broncos often grab somebody they didn't publicly visit leading up to draft weekend. So that is something to think about in the opening round.

And Russell Dillard closes things out . . .

Q: I have more of a comment really. I am scared to death that Shanahan may pull off a draft-day trade to get Chad Johnson. Please tell me he has no interest in going through the Javon Walker scenario again. I guess my question would be . . . does Mike Shanahan have any interest in Chad Johnson?

A: Everybody would have an interest in a player like that, including the Broncos, it's just a matter of actually getting a deal done. And the Broncos don't have enough juice in this draft to get it done.

The talk would start at two No. 1s and go up from there. The Bengals don't want to trade Johnson; their owner Mike Brown is a hard-line guy who has no interest in setting a precedent in the locker room that any disgruntled player will simply get shipped because he wants to.

And folks in the league tell me the Bengals have already turned away an offer of two No. 1s from the Redskins.

That says the Bengals are serious, and it might take more than it's worth to pry Johnson away. After all Randy Moss was traded for a fourth-round pick. Even being younger it's hard to argue Johnson would have a bigger impact -- an impact worthy of two No. 1 picks and more -- than the Patriots got from Moss from a fourth-round pick.

The Broncos got Walker for an early second-round pick.

And just reminder, as an Inbox tradition, we have one more -- next week after the draft -- before the summer hiatus. The Inbox will then return just before training camp opens.

That's it, and thanks.

Posted by at 12:01 AM | Comments (1)