March 4, 2008 5:07 PM

Vermont: Sneak preview to the real action

The polls have closed in Vermont. We (or at least the boys and girls at CNN) have a winner. Try to control your excitement.

In boxing terminology, this is what they call a prelim. The marquee fights – taking place in Ohio and Texas – are the only ones that count. But wisely, Rhode Island and Vermont picked the same day to have their primaries.

The stakes are, of course, enormous. If Hillary Clinton were to win in Texas and Ohio, the race definitely goes on – even if the delegate math stays in Barack Obama’s favor. (This just in: It does.)

If there’s a split, then the pressure will be enormous for Clinton to give up the race. My prediction – which I know you’ve been waiting for – is that she won’t. Not right away. Not until everyone looks at the math – go to slate.com/features/delegatecounter, which shows that with 611 pledged delegates left after tonight, it’s virtually impossible for Clinton to catch up. (We’ll get to super delegates on a later post.)

If Obama wins both Texas and Ohio, it’s more than over. It’s so over that they might as well start blowing up the Obama balloons at the Pepsi Center for the convention this August.

While we’re waiting, though, we can review how we got to this point. Obama has his 11-contest winning streak, a lead in the pledged-delegate count, a lead in the total-delegate count and all the momentum. Until, that is, Saturday Night Live made fun of the press for swooning over Barack Obama. And the Clinton campaign ran the phone-ringing-at-3 a.m. TV ad. And the Tony Rezko trial began in Chicago. And then Canada – Canada? – entered the picture.

And suddenly, Clinton seemed to have a chance again. Or, as she put it the other day, “I’m just getting warmed up.” (In Ohio, they were having an ice storm, but I don’t do weather jokes.)
Here’s what Obama, on his campaign plane, told reporters today: “Look…they have run a pretty negative campaign over the last couple of weeks. I have said consistently that we do things differently. It’s worked for us so far and you know I’m not gonna do things that I’m not comfortable doing and I want to make sure that we stay focused on the issues. I am a little surprised that all the complaining about the refs has actually worked as well as it has for them.
‘This whole spin of how the press has just been so tough on them and not tough on us, I didn’t expect that you guys would bite on that.

“But you know, it is what it is.”

It is what it is. But we don’t know what that is yet (except that John McCain will clinch the Republican nomination, probably tonight). There are four states voting today, and, of course, the counting won’t be over until we’re finished with the infamous Texas two-step – the double vote which includes a primary and a caucus.

For now – a half hour before the polls close in Ohio -- we have the latte-sippers from Vermont.
And, oh yeah, as expected, Obama won in Vermont. Big.

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