By Aaron J. Lopez
Put me down for a 48.
Normally, that would be my score on the front 9 at the local muni, but right now I'm talking Nuggets basketball.
After going over the 2008-09 season, I've come up with 48 wins for a Nuggets team that won 50 last season but lost starting center Marcus Camby in a cost-cutting move this summer.
Most of you are probably thinking I've had a few too many shots of Hornitos the blue-and-gold Kool-Aid, but the Nuggets remain loaded with talent.
A starting lineup of Carmelo Anthony at small forward, Kenyon Martin at power forward, Nene at center, Allen Iverson at shooting guard and Chucky Atkins at the point looks pretty good on paper. Assuming free-agent guard J.R. Smith returns as expected, the Nuggets' bench will be an interesting energy group of Smith, point guard Anthony Carter and forwards Chris Andersen and Linas Kleiza.
My prediction of 48 wins is based upon the Nuggets avoiding major brawls having a healthy roster, something that hasn't been the case since Anthony's rookie season in 2003-04. Most NBA coaches won't admit it, but they've probably already charted out potential wins and losses after seeing the final schedule this week.
All that being said, let's look at how I arrived at my very unscientific conclusion:
OCTOBER - 2 games (2 home, 0 road)
The Nuggets will have a hard time beating the defending NW Division champion Jazz in Salt Lake City in the opener - especially without Anthony (two-game suspension) - but I can see them bouncing back to handle an angry Camby and the Clippers in Los Angeles two nights later.
Record: 1-1
NOVEMBER - 16 games (8 home, 8 road)
After being swept by the Lakers in the playoffs, the Nuggets get a small measure of revenge by winning their home opener. It will be one of nine wins in the month for the Nuggets, who will go 1-2 on a trip to Charlotte, Cleveland and Boston and winless on a trip to San Antonio and the Lakers. Seven home wins is not out of the question.
Record: 9-7 (10-8 overall)
DECEMBER - 15 games (7 home, 8 road)
Home cooking again helps a Nuggets team that went 33-8 at the Pepsi Center last season, while the road includes tough games at Sacramento, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and Portland. I have the Nugs losing all five of those games but winning two of three on an Eastern trip to New York, Atlanta and Toronto.
Record: 9-6 (19-14 overall)
JANUARY - 14 games (10 home, 4 road)
This is a critical month for the Nugs as they play nine of 10 games at home during a three-week stretch. Many of the visiting teams are formidable (Detroit, Dallas, New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah) but New Orleans and Utah will come to Denver on the second half of a back-to-back set. With games at Oklahoma City (formerly known as Seattle) and Memphis, the Nuggets should have no problem going 2-2 on the road.
Record: 10-4 (29-18 overall)
FEBRUARY - 12 games (4 home, 8 road)
Things now start to get interesting. Not only is the trade deadline within sight, but the schedule gets tough. After hosting San Antonio to open the month, the Nuggets will go on a five-game road trip leading up to the All-Star break and open a three-game trip after the break. All but one game (Oklahoma City) will be against Eastern Conference teams, which should help the Nuggets. Still, I don't see them going any better than 3-5 during this stretch. The Nugs return home to face Boston, Atlanta and the Lakers and a 1-2 stumble is very realistic.
Record: 5-7 (34-25 overall)
MARCH - 16 games (8 home, 8 road)
The stretch run opens with four difficult road games sandwiched around a home date against a talented young Portland team, so I've got the Nuggets going 1-4 in the first eight days of March. Another home loss to Houston (assuming Ron Artest hasn't tried to choke Yao Ming by then) will follow before the Nuggets go on a five-game winning streak. They will then steal one game during a trip through Phoenix, New Orleans and Dallas before being Golden State and New York at home.
Record: 9-7 (43-32 overall)
APRIL - 7 games (4 home, 3 road)
Let's keep this simple. Four home wins against Utah, the Clippers, OKC and Sacramento and a road win at Minnesota. Two road losses at the Lakers and Portland.
Record: 5-2 (48-34 overall)
Now the fun part (and you'll have to trust me on this). I haven't seen the over/under lines that have been set by the Las Vegas bookmakers. I'm guessing they are much lower than my prediction of 48 wins. Just don't come looking for me if you lose the authentic A.I. or Melo jersey right off your back.