On Point Vincent Carroll, editor of the editorial pages, writes his On Point column most weekdays. He is also an author and freelance writer. Reach Vincent Carroll at carrollv@RockyMountainNews.com.

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In the future, no American community is likely to be as nakedly unprepared for a hurricane as New Orleans was two years ago. No government agency is likely to be as flat-footed as the Federal Emergency Management Agency. But damage from big storms very likely will increase in the coming decades just the same, as Al Gore and other fearmongers warn.

What the Paul Reveres of global crisis don’t always acknowledge, however, is that the main reason for the probable devastation won’t be the severity of the storms so much as the proliferation of targets.

In his new book, Cool It, Danish scholar Bjorn Lomborg explains: “The global costs of climate-related disasters have indeed increased relentlessly over the past half-century. Yet just comparing costs over long periods of time does not make sense without taking into account changes in population patterns and demography as well as economic growth. There are 2 1/2 times as many people in the world as there were in 1950; each of us is more than three times as rich; and we have used our wealth to move to scenic coastal areas . . . . In Florida, Dade and Broward counties are today home to more people than lived in 1930 in all 109 coastal counties from Texas to Virginia, along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.”

More people plus more infrastructure equals ever-more costly damage when storms strike. Bank on it.

Lomborg points out that there is no scientific consensus — except in some alarmists’ minds — as to whether the strength of storms has been getting worse with global warming. The U.N. World Meteorogical Organization this year found evidence, he says, “both for and against the existence of of a detectable anthropogenic [human-caused] signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date.”

So if we want to reduce future devastation, Lomborg concludes, the wisest course is to choose the sort of strategies that would have helped New Orleans: better planning, warning systems and evacuation procedures, as well as upgraded infrastructure and building codes.

And then brace ourselves.

Outright hooey

“As long as natural gas is expensive, clean energy will be much, much cheaper for consumers. Drilling in the Roan Plateau will not save consumers money — it will, however, add to the bottom line for oil and gas company profits.”
— Rep. John Salazar,Rocky Mountain News Speakout, Aug. 29

If Rep. Salazar believes drilling atop the energy rich Roan in western Colorado is a bad idea because of the environmental risk, so be it. It’s a defensible position although one I might dispute.

What is less defensible, though — in fact, is mostly outright hooey — is the claim that boosting natural gas production will have no effect on prices (drilling “will not save consumers money”), and that high-cost natural gas equals cheaper clean alternatives.

If increased natural gas production doesn’t temper prices and save consumers money, why favor any new production anywhere? Why support old production, for that matter, if natural gas is the single commodity on Earth immune to price signals related to supply and demand?

It is true, of course, that when the prices of fossil fuels rise, nonpolluting alternatives become more competitive and attractive. But that is hardly the same as saying they are “much, much cheaper.” They’re the same price as they were but more likely to be used.

They may become cheaper as more investment flows their way and technology improves, but that’s a long, complex process. It hardly justifies the seemingly bald assertion that the high price of natural gas is wonderful news for homeowners paying the bills.

Vincent Carroll is editor of the editorial pages. Reach him at carrollv@RockyMountainNews.com.

READER COMMENTS

At least VC didn't try to refute the science behind GW....bravo.

Just a reminder for Vinnie and his footsoldiers:

FRIDAY

At a 9/1 press conference, Lt. Gen. Russel Honoré, commander, Joint Task Force Katrina, said that the Gulf States began the process of requesting additional forces on Friday, 8/26…THROUGH APPROPRIATE CHANNELS…STILL 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL

SATURDAY

Gov of Louisiana declared a statewide state of emergency…and also made SECOND formal request for federal troops the same day…24 hours before Katrina was upgraded to a cat 3 storm…and a full 48 hours before landfall

Also on Sat…“I have determined that this incident is of such severity and magnitude that effective response is beyond the capabilities of the State and affected local governments, and that supplementary Federal assistance is necessary to save lives, protect property, public health, and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a disaster.”---formal request made directly to W by Gov of Louisiana…verified by congressional hearings two months ago

TWO FULL DAYS BEFORE LANDFALL, in response to all of those requests the Whitehouse DECLARED A FEDERAL EMERGENCY after which the whitehouse said…”“Specifically, FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide AT ITS DISCRETION, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency.”…this is on SATURDAY mind you…still two days before landfall…when Katrina was still a Cat 3 storm….and several days after both Chertoff and W were warned that the levee’s could “fail” and produce a humanitarian “crisis”.

SUNDAY

“We were briefing them way before landfall. … It’s not like this was a surprise. We had in the advisories that the levee could be topped.’”—Dr. Max Mayfield, Director of National Hurricane Center…speaking of W and Chertoff’s knowledge of conditions on SUNDAY…still 24 hours before landfall

On Sunday, still 24 hours before landfall 36000 refugees arrive at Superdome…National Guard officially requests (through the appropriate channels) 700 buses for evacuation of people from Superdome and other collection sites in NO…FEMA responds with 100 buses…got the message…just inadequate response….WHAT IS NOW JUDGED AS ONE OF THE SINGLE DEADLIEST INCIDENTS OF LACK OF RESPONSE IN FEMA HISTORY

MONDAY

LANDFALL…7 AM

11 AM…INTERNAL WHITEHOUSE MEMO CIRCULATED THAT RELAYS INFO ON “SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THROUGH REGION” AND “A LEVEE IN N.O. HAS BEEN BREACHED AND HAS SENT 6-8 FEET OF WATER THROUGHOUT THE 9TH WARD”…again verified during congressional hearings…maybe the reason W didn’t get the memo was that he was still on vacation and officially “unplugged”

11:30 AM…BROWN FINALLY OFFICIALLY REQUESTS 10k TROOPS FROM DHS GO TO GULF COAST REGION…ALLOWS THEM 2 DAYS TO GET THERE…AND THIS IS IMPORTANT FELLAS…THIS ACTION IS 48 HOURS AFTER W DECLARED A FEDERAL STATE OF EMERGENCY AND GAVE FEMA THE AUTHORIZATION TO “MOBILIZE AND PROVIDE AT ITS DISCRETION, EQUIPMENT AND RESOURCES NECESSARY TO ALLEVIATE THE IMPACTS OF THE EMERGENCY”…AND AGAIN…72 HOURS AFTER GOV OF LOUISIANA DECLARED STATE OF EMERGENCY AND MADE TWO FORMAL REQUEST FOR TROOPS. IT IS AFTER THIS TIME IN THE CRISIS THAT EXPERTS HAVE PROVEN THAT MOST OF LOSS OF LIFE TOOK PLACE…again verified by the congressional hearings…requests for troops by Blanco have been confirmed by the head of Katrina Task Force…who of course reports to Dir of FEMA

8:00 PM…Gov Blanco again makes request directly to W for more federal assistance as current response is “grossly inadequate”.

W goes to bed without responding to her request

TUESDAY

11:00 am...more than 24 hours after landfall…Rummy said on behalf of Pentagon that the number of federal troops and resources in the area are adequate.

First reports of widespread looting and death are reported on CNN, MSNBC, FOX News.

11:OO AM Fema staff members OFFICIALLY (by phone, text message and email according to congressional inquiry) advise their boss that people are dying at the Superdome…once again verified by congressional testimony

The USS Bataan, a 844-foot ship designed to dispatch Marines in amphibious assaults, has helicopters, doctors, hospital beds, food and water. It also can make its own water, up to 100,000 gallons a day. And it just happened to be in the Gulf of Mexico when Katrina came roaring ashore. The Bataan rode out the storm and then followed it toward shore, awaiting relief orders WHICH NEVER CAME FROM THE PENTAGON. Helicopter pilots flying from its deck were some of the first to begin plucking stranded New Orleans residents. But now the Bataan’s hospital facilities, including six operating rooms and beds for 600 patients, are empty.

WEDNESDAY

1:45 AM…FEMA REQUESTS AMBULANCES FOR DYING RESIDENTS BUT DOESN’T RECEIVE THEM BECAUSE AS ONE FEMA EE WAS QUOTED “WE WERE TOLD THE DOT DOESN’T DO AMBULANCES”

11:OO AM Fema staff members AGAIN AND OFFICIALLY (by phone, text message and email according to congressional inquiry) advise their boss that people are dying at the Superdome

12:00 AM Federal Troops arrive…2 DAYS AFTER LANDFALL, a full 4 DAYS after federal emergency was declared, and 5 DAYS after the Gov of Louisiana OFFICIALLY REQUESTED THEM

W ARRIVES BACK FROM HIS VACATION…NOW DECLARES THAT HE’LL FLY BACK TO WASHINGTON AND FORM A “FEDERAL TASK FORCE TO COORDINATE RESPONSE”…2 DAYS AFTER LANDFALL

AFTER TWO MORE CALLS TO THE WHITEHOUSE GOV BLANCO GETS W LIVE ON THE PHONE AND AGAIN REQUEST FEDERAL TROOPS…ASKS SPECIFICALLY FOR ASSISTANCE IN N.O. AND REQUESTS 40K TROOPS…”WHATEVER YOU HAVE”

THURSDAY

7:00 AM… “I don’t think anybody anticipated the breach of the levees.”—W, first official press conference. Max Mayfield, Director of National Hurricane Service reportedly starts breaking shit in his office.

Bush creates a "War on Terror" and VC labels Gore a "Fearmonger"

I heard that New Orleans is sinking and in 40-60 years it will be gone. Should not the 500 billion dollers spent on that city, be spent on re-location? Perhaps we should not build communities on the beach or in swamp land. The people of Colorado know you don't build a home at the bottom of a snow slide. Why invite inevitable disaster?

Does Jay have a job? All he does is post on these forums. What a loser.

Don't pout 8:45....I own a business and type at nearly 80 words per minute so when I feel stressed or need a little break, it doesn't take me long to smack around far right wingnuts like you for a little diversion at work.

Actually this week I'm at the beach with my wife...so I won't be around much...but don't think I won't check in from time to time to shoot holes in your talking points.

In theory, Mr. Carroll has a point about energy markets. In practice, he's wrong.

Here's what Steve Raabe at the Post reported last week:

"Despite the revenue loss to northern Rockies producers, consumers have missed the benefit of lower crude-oil prices because refiners have kept retail fuel prices in the region near national averages.

The refiners' advantage of purchasing oil at discounted prices and selling gas at full price has contributed to the record profits earned by big oil companies, which control most of the nation's refining."

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_6682980

Drilling Roan Plateau would be no different: a good deal for gas companies, a bad deal for Colorado.

Mr. Carroll's assertion that drilling every last acre in western Colorado will reduce natural gas prices is a whole lot of hooey. Congressman Salazar is right that consumers are better served by balanced policies promoting conservation and renewable energy.

At the recently completed conference put on by the Colorado Oil and Gas Association’s recent conference in Denver an energy analysts noted that the completion of the RMX natural gas pipeline will boost industry profits—and raise Colorado consumer’s energy prices (Denver Post: “Pipeline could mean higher heating bills for Coloradans,” July 22).
Western Colorado is rapidly becoming the nation’s energy colony, as vast portions of once undeveloped lands become industrialized—sometimes beyond recognition. With 50,000 new gas wells coming in the next decade, and prospects for oil shale and uranium looming on the horizon the issues now bubbling to the surface—from toxic exposure and degradation of air and water quality to decaying infrastructure and loss of wildlife habitat—will only grow. Rep. Salazar recognizes this and is not only supporting the majority of his constituents in working to protect the one-third of the Roan Plateau Planning Area under dispute (the other 2/3 will remain available for responsible surface energy development, while the remainder will be available once industry can get the gas by drilling from adjacent lands).
Hallmarks of life in a colony include: local people bear the burden of impacts to support faraway consumptive lifestyles (n this case in the MidWest); local prices increase as a once (locally abundant) commodity is shipped off to distant markets where they can fetch top dollars, driving up local prices for consumers; and, the majority of wealth form the development of resources also flows away from the impacted region.
A recent Colorado Schools of Mine report shows that 57% of the revenue from this activity flows out of state, while 73% flows out of the affected counties.
The rosiest estimates of the Roan’s natural gas potential (of which the majority would be developable under Rep. Salazar’s energy bill provisions) would only supply the nation’s natural gas appetite for two months. While this marginal boost in supplies will certainly benefit oil and gas companies—the largest ones operating around the Roan being from Oklahoma and Canada—to claim that it will have any noticeable impact on consumer prices is highly dubious, at best.
As the adage goes, Mr. Carroll is entitled to his own opinion, but he is not entitled to his own facts.

$127 billion down the below-sea level rat-hole and still counting. That comes out to a handsome $425,000 for every man, woman and child in NO. When is enough, enough? And now we just learned that "The Big Easy" sports the #1 murder rate in the USA! One lousy storm and they all go totally native in a heartbeat.

Plow the place under.

What, pray tell, does "go totally native" mean?

What, pray tell, does "go totally native" mean?

No federal aid for disasters in know problem areas. If you are so stupid you refuse to acknowledge that you have put yourself in harms way, don't come with a gun to take money out of my wallet. Private insurance only for all natural disasters.

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