May 6, 2008 1:40 PM
Weathers Defying Expectations
What we knew of Weathers when the Rockies selected him eighth overall in the draft was that he was a power closer, new to pitching but with the heat to blow the ball past hitters. We also knew that he'd struggle with pitches high in the strike zone. His draft profile at Baseball America mentioned his erratic command and tendency with his fastball to "elevate it late in counts". The author of minor league baseball's scouting report on Weathers wrote this after watching him pitch in Houston last February:
His plane to the plate isn't great because he tends to drop and drive too frequently.
For more about the "drop and drive" delivery, and the potential health problems it can produce, I'd suggest reading this article from Amherst, but that again suggests that Weathers would elevate his pitches in college. Elevated pitches will produce higher flyball rates, more strikeouts, but also more homeruns. As a power pitcher who can get his fastball to approach triple digits at times, Weathers should generate even more K's. Of course, the erratic command would indicate that Weathers would also run into troubles with walks. In thirteen games in Asheville last season, he more or less fell into this profile. He struck out over a third of the batters he faced, but allowed a couple of homeruns. While not walking many, the command issues were apparent in his first few outings.
In eleven games this year, the story's been much different. An average groundball rate in the minor leagues is right around 47%, Weathers thus far in 2008 has been inducing 60% groundballs off contact. That is right around the same rate that Aaron Cook and his sinker generate with the Rockies and not something one would expect to see with a power reliever known to elevate his pitches. Meanwhile, Weathers has also cut back on the rate he walked opponents while in Asheville by about a third and the rate of his strikeouts by nearly half. He has yet to give up a homerun in the 2008 campaign.
This change might have a natural explanation. Weathers only started pitching in 2005, so he's still learning the craft. A scout I talked to who had seen one of Weathers' outings this year (but hadn't seen him in 2007) said Casey was staying on top of his pitches and using his lower half more than the reports from Vanderbilt would suggest. While the velocity of his fastball was off a couple of ticks from his peak range, around 93-95 mph, the leveraging was good, and his slider had plenty of late life. He kept most of his pitches in the lower half of the strikezone, showing solid command of both the fastball and slider with one exception. Weathers slipped with one batter, hanging a slider which was lined for a double, but overall the scout's report indicated that he is making strides as a pitcher. An ability to consistently stay on top of his pitches and keep them down will be a huge benefit to Casey when he advances to the high altitude of Colorado Springs and Denver.
Weathers had one blown save for Tulsa on April 21 before he was shelved by the Rockies for ten days with minor pain as a precautionary measure. He's pitched two scoreless innings since returning, but the team seems to be limiting his appearances to once every three days. As the summer heats up, if the Rockies are expecting Weathers to help with the MLB bullpen in 2008, they will want to see the velocity and strikeouts rise a bit, but will also want him to maintain the gains made with his location and command.
Colorado Springs: With a double last night, Ian Stewart has just four hits in his last eleven games, dropping his average to .236 on the season. There's some bad luck in this slump by way of Stewart hitting sharply but right at defenders, and also some poor plate discipline with him striking out 15 times in that span . Jayson Nix returned to the Sky Sox this week, but is still struggling to find the success he had last season, hitting only .200 in 20 AAA at bats. The good news is that three of his four hits have gone for extra bases.
Tulsa: Tulsa's starters are emerging from their month long slump to open the season -the Drillers as a team trail the Texas League in ERA- with Tomas Santiago, Alan Johnson and Brandon Hynick each giving quality starts of at least seven innings over the past three games. Unfortunately, Tulsa lost all three games by one run margins, including today's five to four loss. Chris Nelson hit his second homerun of the season and went three for four in Monday night's game, but has just nine hits in his last 44 AB's.
Modesto: Four Nuts rank in the top fifteen in the California League in strikeouts, including reliever Will Harris, the only Cal League reliever with that distinction. Definitely don't disregard him when considering the top relievers in the system. Harris has struck out 43% of the batters he's faced, and of those fortunate enough to make contact, 69% wind up hitting it into the ground. The former two way player at LSU doesn't have quite the stuff of Weathers, but what he has is nasty.
Asheville: Connor Graham had the best start in the system this past week on Friday night, pitching seven and two thirds innings while giving up just four singles and striking out nine. In his first three starts he pitched 13 1/3 innings, giving up seven runs with 12 walks and 13 strikeouts. In his last three starts, he's pitched 18 2/3 innings, with just one earned run allowed, two walks and nineteen strikeouts.
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