July 22, 2008 6:07 PM
Chacin the Machine
Jhoulys Chacin has established himself as the top up and coming pitcher in the Rockies system this season, going 14-1 with a 1.89 ERA between stops at Asheville and Modesto. Last season, Chacin was good at Casper, but not nearly this good. It's clear that he's made a significant step forward. According to a scouting report last year by Baseball America's Ben Badler, the book on Chacin at the end of the Pioneer League season was that he "doesn't have an overpowering fastball, ...but it has good sink and he locates it well. He also throws his curveball and changeup for strikes, and both have the potential to be plus pitches."
While this describes a quality pitcher and an asset to any organization, it doesn't forecast the kind of season Chacin's been having this year, where he's dominated two leagues with his repertoire of sinker/change/curve and is drawing comparisons to some of the best pitchers in baseball. There are two key differences between Chacin then and Chacin now, the first is slight uptick in the velocity of his fastball from the upper eighties where it sat then to the low nineties he typically works at now and the breakout development of that changeup as a true out pitch against left handed hitters.
The pitch that drives "The Machine" is a hard sinking, low-90's fastball that has generated a groundball rate higher than Brandon Webb's this season. Complementing that is a hammer of a circle changeup that drops down and in on right handers (also known as arm-side fade in scouting parlance) that he'll typically throw between 75-80 mph. The relatively wide difference between his fastball and changeup velocities (sometimes as great as 20 mph) is a little too vast for some scouts, and I talked to one who feels that because of this, right handed hitters are able to identify the change quicker out of his windup, which was used to explain why Chacin is getting more strikeouts and fewer hard hits off of left-handed batters this season. Chacin's third pitch is a curve that has true 12 to 6 drop but lacks the command of the other two deliveries.
He has to establish this fastball as his bread and butter, or he runs into a little difficulty. Pushing too much of the changeup too early gives opponents too much opportunity to identify and sit on a specific pitch. Even so, by little difficulty, so far, I mean very little as the other two pitches, particularly the change, are good enough that single A hitters haven't been able to make much strength off contact -when they are so fortunate to make contact- thanks to the quality of movement.
The bottom line prognosis for Chacin rests on his ability to get that changeup to fool MLB left-handers the way it has worked this season in the minor leagues. There is pretty much a consensus that the sinking fastball will be able to keep right handed hitters from punishing him too badly, and that he should at least be a good middle of the rotation innings eating starter with that and his ability to throw strikes alone.
Most scouts I've talked to this season, besides the one I mentioned above, feel the difference between his performance between right handers and left handers is merely one of approach, where he's looking for a strikeout more when he faces the lefties to keep them from beating him on contact. Most also seem to feel that his location and deception are good enough to continue to do this at the major league level. At that point, his ceiling becomes virtually limitless, as the quality of movement in his change drew comparisons to Frank Viola, Pedro Martinez, and a couple of generational contemporaries in Cole Hamels and Edinson Volquez. Earlier this season, in an article for Baseball America by Jack Etkin, his coach at Asheville compared him to a right handed Johan Santana.
I've actually been looking for ways to temper these glowing reviews, but frankly, I'm getting stumped. Looking at some of the pitchers that have done about as well in the South Atlantic League as Chacin at a similar age reveals that good command of two pitches of differing velocities is usually enough to do it. For example, in 2006 both Carlos Carrasco (then with the Phillies organization) and Will Inman (then with the Brewers) were similarly dominant in the SAL as nineteen year olds. Both also are heavily reliant on their changeups. The similarities stop there, however, as neither have the fastball sink and/or velocity that Chacin does. Volquez didn't have the same kind of command in the minors that he's dispayed this season.
Hamels is perhaps an interesting comparison once you get past the left handedness. He was nearly a year younger than Chacin when he entered the SAL at Lakewood, but showed the same type of dominance before a midseason call-up to Clearwater of the Florida State League. There, unlike Chacin in Modesto thus far, Hamels stumbled in five starts and had to repeat the level in an injury marred 2004 season. At any rate, it becomes clear the deeper that you look into his profile that the Cy Young quality comparisons for Chacin hold and you realize how rare the combination of skills that he possesses is.
With this in mind, barring an injury, he shouldn't be long for the Rockies minor league system and should be making his major league debut by the end of the 2009 season.
Colorado Springs: Cory Sullivan has an eight game hit streak and is on pace to surpass his professional single season highs for doubles and extra base hits. His 27 doubles are currently second on the team to Joe Koshansky.
Tulsa: Three of Brandon Hynick's four July starts have gone seven innings or more and he has a 2.89 ERA for the month. I pointed out last week that pitchers are avoiding confronting Dexter Fowler more, and that hasn't changed in this last week as Fowler has walked in six straight games including drawing five free passes in the last two. He now has the fifth best on base percentage in the Texas League at .422. Fowler was recently rated the fifteenth best prospect in baseball on an updated list of the top 25 at Baseball America.
Modesto: Matthew Repec is batting .302 and has a .603 slugging percentage with four homeruns thus far in the month of July. Modesto currently leads the California League's North division by two games for the second half playoff spot.
Asheville: With Chacin gone, it's easier to take a closer look at the other pitchers on Asheville's staff that had been made pale by comparison with him around. One such pitcher is Cory Riordan, who is proving a valuable workhorse for the Tourists, leading the South Atlantic League in innings pitched and strikeouts. He's also allowed the most hits, but he' only allowed 20 walks all season.
Tri-City: Charlie Blackmon won Northwest Player of the Week honors for the week ending July 13th, but he hasn't stopped hitting since then, riding a twelve game streak to a .331 average. Bo Bowman and Scot Robinson both homered in back to back games last week, Bowman added a third consecutive day with a homerun on Thursday before missing the next three games. He came back with two more hits last night. The Dust Devils themselves haven't fared quite so well, losing eight of their last ten.
Casper: Chad Jacobsen had a grand slam that helped him to a six RBI night last Friday. He collected four hits in five at bats that game.
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