June 7, 2007 8:21 AM
Local real estate likely to buck national trend
Housing prices nationally are headed to the basement but an economist says Denver is likely to buck the trend, reports John Rebchook.
"All real estate is local," said Lawrence Yun, the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors. who released a report today saying he expects home sales nationally to drop an average of 4.6 percent this year.The new forecast more than doubles the 2.2 percent decline the association had predicted two months ago. Yun also predicts an overall decline in national housing prices this year of 1.3 percent.
"Despite the national figures, individual markets can do better or worse," Yun told the Rocky Mountain News. "The Rocky Mountain region is one part of the country that I’m most optimistic about."
He said the Denver area just recently started to recover from the downturn of the tech train wreck that cost the region tens of thousands of high-paying jobs since late 2000.
"Denver did not really participate in the boom of other cities for the last couple of years," Yun said. "But Denver is ripe for a turnaround. You still have a high inventory problem that needs a little working off, but I think this year your prices and sales will be positive."
June 7, 2007
10:20 AM
NW writes:
I hope he's right! I'd like to be able to sell my house in this decade!
June 7, 2007
10:32 AM
jay writes:
I've been telling my friends this for a couple of years now. This is no big surprise. You have to consider the quality of life here...coupled with the weather and relatively inexpensive cost of living. Denver is always near the top of cities in the "best of" lists and isn't about to lose that view or that playground out the back door either. My wife and I talk about moving somewhere else for a change of pace or what have you...but then we start to think about where we'd go...and realize that there are few places we'd enjoy as much as Colorado.
June 7, 2007
10:52 AM
Anonymous writes:
Okay, I'll bite, but how are people going to continue to buy at these prices when wages aren't going up?
Relators and analysts always look at supply and demand in terms of what people want but the new mortgage regs combined with forclosures are going to require buyers to buy within their means.
Who can afford a 250-350k home on 40k a year?
June 7, 2007
11:26 AM
Steve DiSciullo writes:
How can people buy when wages haven't gone up? Current median household income levels will qualify a buyer for a house above the current median price, that's how. (Median household income means half of all households are above and below the specified median level.)
The Denver metro area will have a decent real estate sales year, better than many areas of the country. How can you afford a $250-350k house on $40k a year? You can't, you can afford a $165k proeprty at that income level. Someone has to buy those peoperties, that's why they exist.
Household median income in the Denver metro area is over $63k, which will qualify for a house at about $265k if you have 10% to put down. If a household has one party making $40k, and the other making $23k, they can buy a house at $265k with 10% down. Put that together with the fact that much of the population has current equity in a house that can be transferred to a larger home, and many people at the median income level can afford properties at $325k and up.
June 7, 2007
11:50 AM
Anonymous writes:
We were booming in the late '90's because of all the high paying tech jobs. All of the office buildings in Interlocken in Broomfield were filled up. When those people got laid off and/or transferred, they either let the bank take their house or they sold it under market to get out.
I think if we can get even half of those jobs back, this turnaround can be sped up. But with rising rates, tons of foreclosures, and no real guarantee of the job market making a drastic increase, we had better not get too excited for at least another 2 years.
Colorado is a great state so ultimately we'll be fine. I'm definitely not going anywhere- and that's not just because I wouldn't be able to get what I want for my house right now.
June 7, 2007
11:55 AM
jay writes:
"Who can afford a 250-350k home on 40k a year?"
You can't....thus the booming growth in the suburbs and exurbs.
June 7, 2007
12:17 PM
KW writes:
jay wrote:
That's funny jay. Just a few weeks ago on another thread we were discussing the economy. You listed several items, including the current housing quagmire, as your proof of a faltering economy and that its all a result of failed Bush policies.
Yet today you claim you agree with this prediction.
Be very careful not to twist your neck in a knot making such a high speed u-turn with your opinions.
June 7, 2007
12:32 PM
jay writes:
KW...you poor thing...did someone point out Bush's incompetence again? Do you deny that the nation is experiencing a housing slump? If you'll look at previous statements I made in particular about Denver's housing market over the last say...12 months on this blog...you'll see I've been very consistent about my views that Denver will not follow the nation's path during the housing crisis.
Nice try though.
June 7, 2007
12:41 PM
Anonymous writes:
"Bush's incompetence"
I thought Bush was an evil genius?
June 7, 2007
12:50 PM
jay writes:
I don't think anyone has ever used Bush and genius in the same sentence....except maybe to say "Bush is no genius" or "That Bush boy is a draft dodging genius"
June 7, 2007
1:28 PM
Stem Cell, Bush = Veto writes:
well jay, sorry to see the front page again.
Genius Bush just doesn't like Stem Cell research. It's not black gold, texas tea. How did a Texas hillbilly make to high office? Oh, with a little help from fox news.
And we complain about Russia.
June 7, 2007
1:38 PM
jay writes:
Yup, sucks that Bush is once again vetoing another bill with the support of the vast majority of Americans...and yet another that could have saved peoples' lives.
June 7, 2007
2:02 PM
Richard writes:
Buyers-
Careful what you buy. You can buy it all day and make some agents very happy. But can you sell it?
I bought a typical Denver $200K home 3-4 years ago and put down $40,000. or 20% to get the best loan and not pay mortgage insurance.
I need to move now. My home appreciated dick since and I spent a ton of cash and weekends on painting, floors, updating and landscaping for the next clown.
Moral of the story- I could have done 4 times better in the stock market, rented a place and not done a thing to it and not worry about the stress of selling my home right now and pay 6% to do it.
I went over this scenario with my agent before I moved in. She said I was making the right choice, real estate value always goes up and beats the stock market.
She's in Florida now living on someone else's boat.
June 7, 2007
2:28 PM
jaysanut writes:
KW- It might have been jay's sockpuppet who posts as jw that had that point you made. I remember that comment from one of those 'two' just a few weeks back.
June 7, 2007
2:38 PM
Gambled and lost writes:
Richard-
If you could suck the chrome off a trailor hitch, you too could be living on that boat.
I'm in the same situation and I'm seriously thinking about selling anyway, renting again and playing the stock market and the Bronco's. 16-0 Right? heehehehehhe
June 7, 2007
2:57 PM
jay writes:
Richard where did you buy?
June 7, 2007
3:05 PM
NW writes:
My guess is Commerce City or Aurora.
June 7, 2007
3:40 PM
Richard writes:
Just as bad. Harvey Fucking Park. Right between Federal and Sheridan. Come on over guys, you can catch a pit bull fight or a Cock Fight any given Sat night, shoot your guns at the moon and learn how to duck the drive by's b/c the Mexicans are such nice, decent, ethical people who only contribute.
Especially you Shaggy, you would love it here. I think my neighbor makes burritos and sells them from a cooler outside the bars in lodo after closing.
June 7, 2007
4:24 PM
NW writes:
Now that's funny!
Now that there are a bazillion Realtors in the Denver area, you ought to be able to sell that thing for a lot less than 6%... A lot of them will do it for 1% or a couple pit-bull puppies.
June 7, 2007
5:43 PM
jay writes:
Richard....
Location Location Location.
Your neighborhood looks the same now as when you bought it. Don't blame the market on a poor buying decision.
June 7, 2007
7:31 PM
Richard writes:
Yeah, I hear you. I wanted a decent brick home for $200K or less and I got what I paid for. Mexico. I can't touch the $300K homes and pay the bills at the end of the month.
I might practice sucking the chrome off a trailer hitch, I could handle a boat and not working. Whores, now I know why realtors are called whores. Go figure.
June 8, 2007
8:16 AM
Hogar De Vuelta (العودة) writes:
My house is up 11.4% in 21 months, with no improvements. Considering the market, I am happy with that.
June 8, 2007
9:49 AM
jay writes:
Again Richard....you are the one who chose to buy in that neighborhood...take some accountability for your actions....or move to the whitebread burbs.
June 8, 2007
10:12 AM
whack-a-mole writes:
It doesn't matter since Denver is and will always be a cow-town. Only steers and queers are there and it's a good thing the queers have money.
June 8, 2007
11:03 AM
Anonymous writes:
thanks for showing how absolutely redneck stupid the right wing is mole
June 8, 2007
11:20 AM
whack-a-mole writes:
no sense of humor and gutless turd to boot.
I suppose you blame Bush for you haveing no horns.