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Get Off the X

Tuesday, January 23 at 2:24 PM

This Speakout has not been edited

By Paul Sherbo, Lakewood

Here's a tip I got in Baghdad: When the shooting starts, get off the X. It's a tip that has more than a little relevance to our Iraq policy.

As a sailor in unfamiliar territory (that is, a desert), I paid particular attention to the people trained in land combat. One of the best pieces of advice I got concerned what to do when attacked: "Get off the X."

The X is the spot your attacker has drawn on his diagram of the ambush. Once you reach that point on his diagram, he shoots.

The advice to get off the X means you have to do something fast - attack, fall back, slip sideways, seek cover - just MOVE, because if you move, you may live. But if you stay on the X, you will die.

Unfortunately, our strategy in Iraq has been to stand firmly on a metaphorical X in the belief that if we just kept doing the same things, then in just a few more months, Iraq would get better.

So here we are, on the X - how do we get off it? My two cents:

1 - Forget about troop increases. The number people are tossing about (20,000) is not enough to make a significant difference. Unless we are prepared to double, triple or further multiply the number of troops and settle in for a Roman-style occupation lasting a generation or more, our troops will not solve the problem in Iraq.

2 - Forget about total withdrawal. This is the surest way to internal Iraqi collapse and an expanding civil war followed with a feeding frenzy by Iraq's neighbors. This is clearly not in our interests, nor is it just treatment of the Iraqis who have tried to rebuild their country. True, the reasons the administration gave for getting into Iraq in the first place were unfounded, some would say deceptive. Maybe it should not have been done. But we did it. As Colin Powell put it, if we broke it, we fix it.

If neither an increase in troops nor evacuation is an answer, what is?

3 - Move our main bases to the desert (in the south and west of Iraq) and strengthen the advisor program. By moving most of our troops to the desert we (a) secure vulnerable borders, (b) remove the majority of our troops as a source of irritation and rallying point for the opposition, (c) occupy land that most Iraqis could care less about (and would gladly accept payment for) and (d) provide forces that can quickly get to major trouble spots again if necessary. Those bases in the desert, while out of sight of the vast majority of the Iraqi population, would send a strong message to the rest of the region about our resolve. In addition, strengthening the advisor program would put more troops into a strategy where we have had positive payoff. When Coalition troops live and work directly with Iraqi troops, the Iraqis form strong attachments and perform very well.

4 - Remember that above all, we are not the people who will bring peace to Iraq. The Iraqis will do that, and they will do it their way. What we must do is give them the chance to do so, AND be prepared to live with the answer. (I would caution those who fear that a Shia-dominated Iraq would be run by Iran. Iran may be funneling money to some Shia elements in Iraq, but that's a marriage of convenience. At the end of the day, Iraqis are Arab and Iranians are Persian. While that may not mean much to us here, it means a lot in that area of the world. This is a case where nationalism trumps ideology.)

American voters showed in November that they are not happy with the way the administration has handled Iraq. I fear, however, that this dissatisfaction has gone so far that Americans now want to flee the area screaming in despair. Iraqis have also voted, three times since the fall of Baghdad, each time in increasing numbers. They have pinned their hope on their future.

And while, as Senator Hillary Clinton said last November, hope is not a plan, Central Command chief General John Abizaid gave her the perfect answer: Neither is despair. Despair is what you hear in the United States. Hope is what you hear in Iraq.

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