January 2, 2008 2:53 PM
Which way will it go? CONTEST
UPDATED: We declare a winner at the bottom of this entry.
UPDATE from Adel, Iowa: "Tonight's the night in Iowa"
Where were all the candidates on Wednesday? All over the place.
Where are the polls pointing? All over the map.
And where were we on Wednesday? Hanging out in an undisclosed location on the back roads of Iowa, getting to know some precinct captains and caucus organizers who will guide us through the drama on Thursday night.
(If you want to guess where we'll be on caucus night, the road sign above gives you all the clues you need.)
AND SO, IT COMES DOWN TO THIS...
We need you to make your official, time-stamped predictions for the final rankings in the Iowa precinct caucuses -- among Republicans and Democrats.
Give us your best guesses. Include delegate percentages, predicted concession speech language, or other arbitrary details for extra credit.
And in the opinion of the judge, the person who makes the most accurate, most detailed prediction for the actual result ON BOTH SIDES OF THE PARTISAN DIVIDE will win a very special prize package of back roads collectables -- assembled over the past several months by your weary correspondent.
Be sure to guess with your head, not your heart. (GO TO COMMENTS.)
ENTRY DEADLINE: 5 p.m. Central Time on Thursday
We'll declare a contest winner sometime in the wee hours of Friday morning.
UPDATE: Here's one prediction from our friends at www.USAbuttonpoll.com.
* * *
Here's how TODAY'S STORY looked in today's quaint, old-fashioned, tree-killing, ink-comes-off-in-your-fingers, collectable, recyclable version of the Rocky Mountain News.
SUBSCRIBE to the electronic edition HERE.
UPDATE: We have a winner!
The guesses were all over the place. Who could have predicted that?
There were 31 entries in our battle of prognosticators -- 30 individuals, and one special entry on behalf of the button-buyers of America (see www.USAbuttonpoll.com)
By our count:
* Nine entries predicted BOTH the Democratic and Republican caucus winners.
* Nine folks botched BOTH contests.
You see, we're a divided America...
* Only one person, Scott C., predicted the top four finishers in the Republican contest.
* One person, Kavon Nikrad, predicted the exact percentages for the GOP's Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.
* Six entries correctly ranked the top three Democrats and the top two Republicans (Pauline, Primo, Media Lizzy, Kavon Nikrad, Chaden and www.USAbuttonpoll.com.)
* And we think Jay Byrd deserves some honorable mention for predicting Obama would win, Edwards would finish second, and Clinton would finish somewhere below the Des Moines Coroner, Dubuque county clerk, Sioux City chief cook and bottle washer and the Iowa State U mascot.
It was tough to declare the winner of the big prize.
But we'll have to go with the fellow who appears to have picked the top three Democrats and the top two Republicans, and by numbers very close to the actual margins of victory.
Could there be controversy? Perhaps. Because the winner of the spectacular prize package didn't quite give the candidates' names.
The entry:
REDSouthern Life Coach (30%)
Rocky Mountain Businessman (24%)
Staunch P.O.W. (15%)
Conservative Actor (14%)
Texas Rebel (9%)
NYC Crime Fighter (8%)
Misc (0%)
BLUESouth Side Unifier (32%)
Home Town Watch Dog (26%)
Washington Laundry (21%)
Old School Initiator (10%)
Get-it-done Negoatiator (6%)
Firefighting Record Keeper (4%)
Progressive Optimist (1%)
Alaskan Underdog (0%)
Other (0%)
* * * Congratulations CHADEN, master of the back roads crystal ball. * * *
January 3, 2008
4:59 PM
Pauline writes:
Dem:
Obama: 33%
Edwards: 27
Clinton: 24%
Biden: 10%
Richardson: 6%
Dodd: 0%
Kucinich: 0%
Gravel: 0%
Repub:
Huckabee: 30%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 13%
McCain: 12%
Thompson: 10%
Giuliani: 8%
Hunter: 0%
January 3, 2008
4:02 PM
primo writes:
Obama. 32
Edwards. 28
Clinton. 27
Biden. 10
Huckabee. 35
Romney. 33
McCain. 18
Paul. 11
January 3, 2008
3:34 PM
Tom writes:
DEM
Edwards 30%
Clinton 29%
Obama 26%
Richardson 4%
Field 10%
GOP
Romney 26%
Huckabee 22%
Paul 16%
McCain 16%
Thompson 11%
Giuliani 7%
Hunter 2%
January 3, 2008
2:45 PM
Julian D. Miller writes:
Predictions:
Democrats:
Edwards - 39%
Obama - 28%
Clinton - 20%
Biden - 7%
Richardson - 5%
Dodd - 1%
Republicans:
Huckabee - 32%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 13%
Thompson - 11%
Paul - 8%
Hunter - 4%
I hate to prognosticate, but we'll see how everything turns out in a matter of hours . . .
January 3, 2008
1:31 PM
JB Davis writes:
Edwards 28.7%
Obama 28.3%
Clinton 30%
Biden 7%
Richardson4%
Dodd 2%
McCain 15%
Huckabee 26%
Romney 27%
Thompson 13%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 8%
OK the, these are the predictions for tonight. However...Edwards can't win the nomination because he has spent too much money in Iowa. I think this will be the last big year for Iowa because most candidates are going to develop a national strategy.
January 3, 2008
1:01 PM
genuine ricardo writes:
i want the backroads collectibles!
in this space i already picked the winners weeks ago, but i failed to give the complete breakdown:
GOP
Romney 34
Huckabee 30
McCain 18
DEMS
Edwards 29
Obama 27
Clinton 27
Gilbert Arenas (write-in) 16
January 3, 2008
10:37 AM
Jason Bane writes:
DEMOCRATS
Clinton surprises everyone and wins in a nail-biter. Obama comes in second, Edwards third. Edwards says he is not dropping out because he came in a close third and he owes it to his supporters to continue running. Richardson is the biggest surprise, finishing a distant sixth behind Biden and Dodd. Richardson says he won't drop out, leaving everyone to say, "He was still running?" Gravel and Kucinich's wife get in a wrestling match in an Iowa gymnasium after fighting over two votes. Gravel wins the match after Mrs. Kucinich gets her tongue stud caught on his ear hair.
REPUBLICANS
Romney wins in surprisingly easy fashion, marking the beginning of the end of Huckabee, who nevertheless comes in second. McCain finishes in a strong third, followed by Giuliani and Thompson. Tom Tancredo claims credit for Romney's victory (he did endorse him, after all), while Bob Beauprez and Wayne Allard make the same claims. Beauprez announces he is running for President in 2014; nobody has the heart to tell him that 2014 is a Winter Olympics year, but not a Presidential campaign year.
January 3, 2008
10:25 AM
maryj writes:
ME,I hope there will be a prize for creativity, because Chaden's prognastication deserves recognition, except for the Red/Blue headings.
I am wondering what memento are you leaving to the folks in Iowas so they can remember you?
January 3, 2008
8:23 AM
Steven M Nielson writes:
Democrats:
Edwards - 32%
Obama - 29%
Clinton - 23%
Richardson - 8%
Biden - 6%
Kucinich - 1%
Dodd - 1%
Gravel - 0%
*Dodd and Gravel will drop race
Republicans:
Huckabee - 32%
Romney - 28%
McCain - 15% (Thompson supporters will jump over)
Paul - 13%
Thompson - 8% (his announcement to drop hurt him)
Giuliani - 4%
*Thompson to drop race
January 3, 2008
8:05 AM
M.E. writes:
Sad? My eyes are red from sleep-deprivation, not tears.
January 3, 2008
7:29 AM
andy kopsa writes:
M.E., are you sad it's almost over in Iowa? Andy
January 3, 2008
5:11 AM
Dr. Vote writes:
Dem:
Edwards: 28%
Obama: 27%
Clinton: 24%
Richardson: 10%
Biden: 9%
Dodd: 2%
Repub:
Huckabee: 34%
Romney: 27%
Paul: 13%
McCain: 10%
Thompson: 8%
Giuliani: 8%
January 3, 2008
2:06 AM
jay byrd writes:
DEM
Obama 32%
Edwards 28%
Des Moines Coroner 15%
Dubuque County Clerk 10%
Sioux City Chief Cook & Bottle Washer 8%
Iowa State U Mascot 5%
Hillary(ous) 2%
January 2, 2008
11:38 PM
Media Lizzy writes:
Here are my choices for Re & Blue on the Iowa Caucus Roulette Wheel....
DEMOCRATS:
Obama: 34%
Edwards: 32%
Clinton: 29%
Biden: 2%
REPUBLICANS:
Huckabee: 31%
Romney: 29%
McCain: 14%
Thompson: 11%
Guiliani: 7%
January 2, 2008
9:22 PM
Chaden writes:
RED
Southern Life Coach (30%)
Rocky Mountain Businessman (24%)
Staunch P.O.W. (15%)
Conservative Actor (14%)
Texas Rebel (9%)
NYC Crime Fighter (8%)
Misc (0%)
BLUE
South Side Unifier (32%)
Home Town Watch Dog (26%)
Washington Laundry (21%)
Old School Initiator (10%)
Get-it-done Negoatiator (6%)
Firefighting Record Keeper (4%)
Progressive Optimist (1%)
Alaskan Underdog (0%)
Other (0%)
M.E. Sprengelmeyer takes the back roads....
I take his furniture!
Politicians and media leave Iowa.
We all pay attention to work again.
January 2, 2008
8:40 PM
Mark Wolf writes:
Dems:
I smell Obama momentum. Then again, my nasal passages might be frozen after 24 hours in Dubuque. Obama, Clinton and Edwards in that order with Biden running stronger than expected.
GOP:
Casting call: Mike Huckabee as John Dean. Romney wins by three points, Huckabee a fading second and John McCain nudging past Ron Paul for third.
January 2, 2008
8:39 PM
Ben writes:
This entry comes compliments of my own blog's comment section (http://bendegrow.com/2008/get-out-your-crystal-balls-for-tomorrows-iowa-caucuses/#comments):
DEM
Clinton 32%
Edwards 30%
Obama 28%
Biden 4%
Richardson 3%
Kucinuch 2%
GOP
Huckabee 32%
Romney 30%
McCain 28%
Thompson 5%
Paul 3%
Guilliani 1%
Anthony J. Frascino (artgardenr@aol.com)
January 2, 2008
7:53 PM
timskillern writes:
As I keep saying, this is still the best blog on the Web.
Democrats
Edwards, 30%
Obama, 29%
Clinton, 29%
Field, 12%
Republicans
Huckabee, 24%
Romney, 22%
McCain, 11%
Thompson, 8%
Paul, 8%
Field, 27%
January 2, 2008
6:58 PM
Lauren Victoria Burke writes:
REPUBLICANS
1. Mitt Romney 26%
2. Mike Huckabee 24%
3. John McCain 18%
4. Fred Thompson 11%
5. Ron Paul 9%
6. Rudy Giuliani 8%
DEMOCRATS
1. Hillary Clinton 28%
2. Barack Obama 27%
3. John Edwards 26%
4. Chris Dodd 9%
5. Bill Richardson 5%
January 2, 2008
6:38 PM
M.E. writes:
Our friends at www.USAbuttonpoll.com have just wrapped up a special, Iowa-specific version of their national project, which tries to gauge candidate support based upon how many people purchase a candidate's campaign mementoes.
John "Dr. Vote" Olsen reports these results from caucus kiosks at the Jordan Creek Town Center and Capitol Square building in metro Des Moines:
DEMOCRATS
Obama 29 percent
Edwards 29 percent
Clinton 27 percent
Richardson 8 percent
Biden 4 percent
Dodd 2 percent
Kucinich less than 1 percent
REPUBLICANS
Huckabee 34 percent
Romney 27 percent
McCain 13 percent
Thompson 10 percent
Giuliani 8 percent
Paul 8 percent
For info on the ever-changing national results, go to www.USAbuttonpoll.com.
We eagerly await a separate prediction from "Dr. Vote."
.
January 2, 2008
6:05 PM
Roni Bell writes:
Republicans
Huckabee 26%
McCain 23%
Romney 22%
Guiliani 18%
Collectively the remaining 11%
Democrats
Obama 35%
Edwards 29%
Clinton 27%
Collectively the remaining 9%
January 2, 2008
5:31 PM
ada writes:
Oh! unscheduled time, soon, soon......... Clinton 36% Obama 29% Edwards 31% Romney 34% Huckabee 27% McCain 11%, Giuliani 4% You will be missed by the group drinking Thai coffee at the corner............ Ada..N.C.
January 2, 2008
5:14 PM
Anita writes:
Democratic Party - Senator John Edwards 36%,
2nd Senator Obama 32%
3rd Senator Clinton 31
Dodd and Biden democratic concessions after New Hampshire
Repugnicans who cares,
Huckabee 36%
Romney 30%
Giuliani 27 %
January 2, 2008
5:09 PM
Denise Garbacz writes:
Republicans
Huckabee 26%
Romney 24%
Giuliani 18%
Thompson 15%
McCain 10%
Paul 7%
Democrats
Obama 26%
Clinton 24%
Edwards 24%
Who's to argue with Oprah now that she's thrown her hat into the ring to back Obama.
Our unscientific polls show McCain has a chance among all voters as being the least objectionable candidate. Being arrogant but not offensive may have it's virtues this year.
January 2, 2008
4:44 PM
Scott C writes:
Dem
Edwards 32%
Obama 31%
Clinton 30%
Biden 3%
Richardson 2%
Dodd 2%
Rep
Huckabee 39%
Romney 33%
Thompson 11%
McCain 10%
Guiliani 7%
January 2, 2008
4:42 PM
Shelley writes:
Edwards 29%
Obama 28%
Clinton 28%
Huckabee 30%
Romney 29%
McCain 26%
January 2, 2008
4:28 PM
dennyc writes:
Democratic Party - Senator Obama 36%, 2nd Senator Clinton 34%, 3rd Senator Edwards 20%
Republican Party - Huckabee 35%, 2nd Romney 31%, 3rd Senator McCain 22%
Really enjoyed the articles Mike. Hope you get some rest soon.
January 2, 2008
4:18 PM
dirty writes:
DEM
Edwards 37%
Obama 33%
Clinton 30%
GOP
Huckabee 29%
Romney 28%
McCain 17%
Thompson 10%
Paul 10%
Giuliani 5%
January 2, 2008
4:09 PM
Liberal Believer writes:
Romney-32, Huckabee-26, McCain-15, Thompson-8, Giuliani-8, Paul-8, Hunter-2.
Edwards-30, Clinton-30, Obama-30, Richardson-5, Biden-3, Kucinich-2
January 2, 2008
3:59 PM
Ben writes:
DEM
Edwards 33%
Obama 29%
Clinton 26%
Richardson 6%
Biden 4%
Kucinich 1%
No one screams a la Howard Dean, but Hillary sheds tears in a speech saying Iowa is not a friendly place for a woman candidate but that she will vow to fight on. John Edwards is on the cover of most Iowa newspapers on Friday. Oprah plans a series of exposes on the Edwards family for her upcoming shows. Joe Biden says he will drop out if he doesn't get 10% in New Hampshire. Kucinich ends his speech with "Nanu, nanu!"
GOP
Romney 32%
Huckabee 28%
Thompson 16%
McCain 12%
Paul 7%
Giuliani 4%
Seeking to answer criticisms that if he can't win Iowa he can't win anywhere, Mike Huckabee says he promises to show members of the media more of the anti-Mormon ads attacking Romney that he has refused to run. Fred Thompson gains a little momentum after the results and Duncan Hunter drops out to endorse him. The Ron Paul Express starts to lose steam. More media coverage of Rudy's health than of his campaign.
January 2, 2008
3:54 PM
Eric writes:
Reps: Romney 31, Huckabee 28, McCain 17, Fred 14, Giuliani 8
Dems: Obama 28, Clinton 26, Edwards 22
January 2, 2008
3:47 PM
Kavon W. Nikrad writes:
Hope you had an awesome New Years M.E. and that NH is warmer than IA!
Huckabee 34%
Romney 26%
Obama 30%
Edwards 28%
Clinton 24%
January 2, 2008
3:44 PM
Josh writes:
Dems: Hillary 29%, Edwards 25%, Obama 23%, Richardson 8%, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel
Reps: Romney 29%, Huckabee 27%, McCain 19%, Fred 12%, Giuliani 12%, Paul 1%, Hunter 0%
January 2, 2008
3:35 PM
maryj writes:
Democratic Party - Senator John Edwards 36%, 2nd Senator Obama 33% 3rd Senator Clinton 20 something %
No democratic concessions, they've just begun to primary.
Repugnicans who cares, Huckabee 36%
Romney 30% 3rd place pick 'em 20 something %
M.E. Sprengelmeyer in Chicago trying to wipe away the memory of the bleak Iowa caucus.
Please no left over Iowa furniture. thanks anyway